Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn Korea. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng
Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn Korea. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng

Thứ Sáu, 5 tháng 4, 2013

N Korea in foreign embassy warning

The BBC's Lucy Williamson in Seoul: "North Korea is unpredictable and the stakes are very high”

North Korea has told foreign embassies in Pyongyang it cannot guarantee their safety in the event of conflict, and to consider evacuating their employees.

The UK Foreign Office said it was "considering next steps". Russia said it had no plans to evacuate.

The North's move comes amid threats to attack US and South Korean targets.

South Korea has reportedly deployed two warships with missile-defence systems after the North was said to moved a missile to its east coast.

Military officials told South Korean media the two warships would be deployed on the east and west coasts.

Seoul has played down the North's missile move.

It said the move may be for a test rather than a hostile act.

Creating a crisis?

British diplomats said on Friday the North had asked them to respond by 10 April on what support the embassy would need in the event of any evacuation - and they were considering their moves.

Russian diplomats said they had no immediate plan to evacuate, stressing there were no outward signs of tension in Pyongyang.

But anecdotal reports from inside the capital, Pyongyang, say the mood there is calm, and many believe North Korea is deliberately trying to create a sense of crisis, says the BBC's Lucy Williamson in Seoul.

One of the US targets named by Pyongyang was the Pacific island of Guam, which hosts a US military base.

On Thursday, the US confirmed it would deploy a missile-defence system to Guam in response to the threats.

"The moves that we have been making are designed to ensure and to reassure the American people and our allies that we can defend the United States," said state department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland.

Footage has been released of North Korean President Kim Jong-un watching a military drill

South Korea's foreign minister told MPs on Thursday that the North had moved a missile to the east coast, which is the location for previous military tests.

Unconfirmed reports on Friday said the North had moved two missiles, and had loaded them onto launchers.

Aegis missile defence system

USS John S McCain

  • Allows warships to shoot down enemy ballistic missiles while they are still in space
  • Interceptors are fired to hit missiles before they re-enter the atmosphere
  • The US, South Korea and Japan all have Aegis capability

The missiles are thought to be mid-range Musudans, which are untested in flight but are thought to have the capacity to reach as far as Guam.

The South Korean news agency Yonhap said that two warships equipped with Aegis defence systems would monitor the situation.

"If the North fires off a missile, we will trace its trajectory," Yonhap quoted an official as saying.

'Turn down volume'

Despite North Korea's belligerent rhetoric, it has not taken direct military action since 2010, when it shelled a South Korean island and killed four people.

But in recent weeks it has threatened nuclear strikes and attacks on the US and South Korea.

It has announced a formal declaration of war on the South, and pledged to reopen a mothballed nuclear reactor in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.

Regional papers reflect on crisis

In South Korea

  • Chosun Ilbo says: "The military has pledged to maintain a solid defence amid increasing threats from North Korea, but incident after incident shows how empty that pledge is."
  • JoongAng Daily writes: "The escalation of tension by the North has hardly affected the South. Pyongyang's provocations are aimed at consolidating Kim Jong-un's power base at home."

In Japan

  • According to Yomiuri Shimbun: "Kim should be keenly aware that the pursuits of nuclear armament and economic reconstruction are incompatible."
  • Asahi Shimbun writes: "The United States and its two regional allies, Japan and South Korea, should start working closely together in serious efforts to figure out the best way to deal with North Korea."

Many of North Korea's angry statements have cited the annual military exercises between US and South Korean forces as provocation.

The US flew nuclear-capable B-2 and B-52 bombers over the South as part of the drill, and has since deployed warships with missile-defence systems to the region.

North Korea's official media say the US is surrounding the peninsula with a nuclear threat from land, sea and air.

Reports in US media quoting unnamed Pentagon officials suggest Washington is now questioning whether some of its actions may have contributed to the tension.

CNN quoted a Pentagon official as saying the US would now try to "turn the volume down" on its rhetoric.

In recent weeks, the North has shut down an emergency military hotline between Seoul and Pyongyang and stopped South Koreans from working at a joint industrial complex in the North.

The Kaesong complex, one of the last remaining symbols of co-operation between the neighbours, is staffed mainly by North Koreans but funded and managed by South Korean firms.

North Korea missile ranges map


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Thứ Năm, 4 tháng 4, 2013

Ban fears serious Korea consequences

The BBC's Damian Grammaticas on how the US and South Korea are responding to the threats

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has appealed to North Korea to change course, saying it has "gone too far" in its rhetoric.

He said he was concerned any "unwanted crisis" on the Korean peninsula would have "very serious implications".

The warning came hours after South Korea's foreign minister said the North had shifted a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast.

Pyongyang earlier renewed threats of a nuclear strike against the US.

However, its missiles are not believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

White House spokesman Jay Carney described the threats as "regrettable but familiar", adding the US was taking "all the necessary precautions".

Mr Ban told a news conference in Madrid that "nuclear threat is not a game, it's very serious... I think they [North Korea] have gone too far in their rhetoric".

He called on all parties in the crisis to "calm down the situation and engage in dialogue".

Analysis


Despite all the bluster, experts do not believe that North Korea has the capacity to launch a nuclear-armed ballistic missile at the US. However, American bases in South Korea, Japan and perhaps even as far away as Guam could well be within range of Pyongyang's conventionally armed missiles.

The US response has been a mixture of reassurance for its allies and prudent defensive precautions, including the deployment of warships with anti-missile capabilities.

Other anti-missile defences in the region are also being bolstered, a step that carries an additional message to Beijing - that if Pyongyang remains on this course anti-missile systems will only proliferate, something that may eventually compromise the effectiveness of China's own nuclear deterrent.

Meanwhile, Russia said Pyongyang's attempts to "violate decisions of the UN Security Council are categorically unacceptable".

"This radically complicates, if it doesn't in practice shut off, the prospects for resuming six-party talks," foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement on Thursday.

The talks involving North and South Korea, the US, Russia, China and Japan were last held in late 2008.

Wary neighbours

Japan said it was co-operating closely with the US and South Korea to monitor the North's next move.

Government spokesman Yoshihide Suga earlier told reporters that Japan was braced for a "worst-case scenario".

The US has responded to North Korea's statements by moving missile defence shields to Guam.

The Pentagon said the shield on its Pacific island territory would be ready within weeks, adding to warships already sent to the area.

The North has previously named Guam among a list of possible targets for attack that included Hawaii and the US mainland.

Japanese and South Korean reports had suggested on Wednesday that the missile being moved by the North was a long-range one with a capability of hitting the US west coast.

However, experts believe the North's most powerful rocket, which it test-fired last December, has a range of 6,000km (3,700 miles) and can reach no further than Alaska.

South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Kwan-jin played down concerns that the missile could target the US mainland, and said the North's intentions were not yet clear.

Mr Kim told MPs in a parliamentary defence committee meeting that the missile had "considerable range".

Analysts have interpreted Mr Kim's description as referring to the Musudan missile, estimated to have a range up to 4,000km. Guam would be within that range.

US newspapers react

The New York Times says: "The Obama administration was prudent to bolster its forces in the region. Many experts assume Mr Kim won't attack the world's top military power or its allies, but Washington has an obligation to guarantee that if this assumption is wrong, it can defend the homeland."

From the Washington Post: "What the administration really needs, however, is a new strategy for answering the provocations. Diplomacy hasn't worked; neither has pressuring China to restrain the Kim regime. What has are financial sanctions targeted at the ruling elite."

The New Jersey Star-Ledger says: "While many buy into the old disarmament-for-food storyline, there's another camp concerned this episode might be different: that Kim, with little more than a year on the job, might actually believe his nation has become a nuclear power."

Declaration of war

The North is believed to have its main military research centres in the east.

It has test-fired missiles from there before, and its three nuclear weapons tests were carried out in the east.

Despite its belligerent rhetoric, North Korea has not taken direct military action since 2010, when it shelled a South Korean island and killed four people.

But in recent weeks it has threatened nuclear strikes and attacks on specific targets in the US and South Korea.

It has announced a formal declaration of war on the South, and pledged to reopen a mothballed nuclear reactor in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.

In its latest statement, attributed to a military spokesman, the North appeared to refer to continuing military exercises between the US and South Korea in which the US has flown nuclear-capable bombers over the South.

The statement said the "ever-escalating US hostile policy towards the DPRK [North Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed".

It promised to use "cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means of the DPRK" and said the "merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified".

Timeline: Korean tensions

  • 12 Dec: North launches a rocket, claiming to have put a satellite into orbit
  • 12 Feb: North conducts underground nuclear test
  • 11 Mar: US-South Korea annual military drills begin
  • 30 Mar: North says it is entering a "state of war" with South
  • 2 Apr: North says it is restarting Yongbyon reactor

The US Department of Defense said on Wednesday it would deploy the ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (Thaad) to Guam in the coming weeks.

The Thaad system includes a truck-mounted launcher and interceptor missiles.

US officials recently also announced that the USS John McCain, a destroyer capable of intercepting missiles, had been positioned off the Korean peninsula.

Some analysts say Pyongyang's angry statements are of more concern than usual because it is unclear exactly what the North hopes to achieve.

As well as the angry statements, the North has also shut down an emergency telephone line between Seoul and Pyongyang and stopped South Koreans from working at a joint industrial complex in the North.

The Kaesong complex, one of the last remaining symbols of co-operation between the neighbours, is staffed mainly by North Koreans but funded and managed by South Korean firms.

North Korea missile ranges map


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Thứ Tư, 3 tháng 4, 2013

US boosts defences amid Korea threat

Breaking news

The US is moving an advanced missile system to the Pacific island of Guam as a precaution following threats by North Korea, the Pentagon has said.

The Department of Defence said it would deploy the ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (Thaad) in the coming weeks.

Pyongyang has threatened to target South Korea and the US in recent weeks.

The state's warlike rhetoric follows new UN sanctions and joint military drills by the US and South Korea.

The Thaad system includes a truck-mounted launcher, interceptor missiles, and AN/TPY-2 tracking radar, together with an integrated fire control system.

The Pentagon said in a statement the missile system would be moved to Guam as a "precautionary move to strengthen our regional defence posture against the North Korean regional ballistic missile threat".

"The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korean provocations and stands ready to defend US territory, our allies, and our national interests," the statement added.


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Thứ Ba, 2 tháng 4, 2013

US 'will defend self and S Korea'

Breaking news

The US will defend itself and its "treaty ally" South Korea in the face of North Korean threats, Secretary of State John Kerry has said.

Mr Kerry made the pledge while speaking at a news conference with his South Korean counterpart Yun Byung-se.

Pyongyang has taken a series of defiant measures in the wake of its third nuclear test in February.

North Korea has been angered by the resultant UN sanctions and joint US-South Korea annual military drills.


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Thứ Sáu, 29 tháng 3, 2013

N Korea in 'state of war' with South

North Korean Kim Jong-un meets military officials (Unverified picture released by KCNA news agency 29 March)Kim Jong-un has talked of "settling accounts" with the US "imperialists"

North Korea has said it is entering a "state of war" with South Korea in its latest escalation of rhetoric against its southern neighbour and the US.

A statement carried on state media promised "stern physical actions" against "any provocative act".

North Korea has been threatening attacks almost daily, though few think it would risk a full-blown war.

The US has condemned the North's "bellicose rhetoric", while Russia has warned of a "vicious circle".

North and South Korea have technically been at war since the armed conflict between them ended in 1953, because an armistice was never turned into a peace treaty.

Tensions in the Korean peninsula have been high since North Korea's third nuclear test on 12 February, which led to the imposition of fresh sanctions.

A North Korean statement released on Saturday said: "From this time on, the North-South relations will be entering the state of war and all issues raised between the North and the South will be handled accordingly."

"The long-standing situation of the Korean peninsula being neither at peace nor at war is finally over."

Timeline: Korean tensions

  • 12 Dec: North Korea fires three-stage rocket, in move condemned by UN as banned test of long-range missile technology
  • 12 Feb: North Korea conducts an underground nuclear test, its third after tests in 2006 and 2009
  • 7 Mar: UN approves fresh sanctions on Pyongyang; North Korea says it has the right to a "pre-emptive nuclear strike" on the US
  • 11 Mar: US-South Korea annual joint military drills begin; North Korea says it has scrapped the Korean War armistice (the UN says the pact cannot be unilaterally scrapped)
  • 19 Mar: US flies B-52 nuclear-capable bombers over Korean peninsula, following several North Korean threats to attack US and South Korean targets
  • 20 Mar: Broadcasters and banks in South Korea hit by cyber attack, the origin of which remains unknown, days after North Korea says some of its sites were hacked
  • 27 Mar: North Korea cuts military hotline with South, the last official direct link between the two
  • 28 Mar: US flies stealth bombers over Korean peninsula; showcasing ability for precision strike "at will"
  • 30 Mar: North Korea says it is entering a "state of war" with South Korea

North Korea has made multiple threats against both the US and South Korea in recent weeks, including warning of a "pre-emptive nuclear strike" on the US and the scrapping of the Korean War armistice.

US sorties

On Thursday, North Korean state media reported leader Kim Jong-un "judged the time has come to settle accounts with the US imperialists".

He was said to have condemned US B-2 bomber sorties over South Korea as a "reckless phase" that represented an "ultimatum that they will ignite a nuclear war at any cost on the Korean Peninsula".

US mainland and bases in Hawaii, Guam and South Korea were all named as potential targets.

State media in the North showed thousands of soldiers and students at a mass rally in Pyongyang supporting of Kim Jong-un's announcement

North Korea's most advanced missiles are thought to be able to reach Alaska, but not the rest of the US mainland.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the rhetoric only deepened North Korea's isolation.

The US had already flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over South Korea earlier this month, in what it called a response to escalating North Korean threats.

China, North Korea's biggest trading partner, has reiterated its call for all sides to ease tensions.

Start Quote

When you look at occasions where something really did happen, such as the artillery attack on a South Korean island in 2010, you see there were very clear warnings”

End Quote Professor John Delury, Yonsei university

Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a daily news conference that "joint efforts" should be made to turn around a "tense situation".

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov went further, voicing concern that "we may simply let the situation slip out of our control and it will slide into a spiral of a vicious circle".

"We are concerned that... unilateral action is being taken around North Korea that is increasing military activity," he said.

On 16 March, North Korea warned of attacks against South Korea's border islands, and advised residents to leave the islands.

In 2010 it shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong island, causing four deaths.

On Wednesday, Pyongyang also cut a military hotline with the South - the last direct official link between the two nations.

A Red Cross hotline and another line used to communicate with the UN Command at Panmunjom have already been cut, although an inter-Korean air-traffic hotline still exists.

The jointly run Kaesong industrial park is still in operation.

North Korea missile ranges map


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N Korea 'readies rocket force'

A US B-2 stealth bomber flies over a US air base in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, on March 28, 2013 as part of South Korea-US joint military exercise. North Korea called the stealth bombers flown over South Korea on Thursday 'a dangerous provocation'

North Korea says it has put missile units on stand-by to attack US military bases in response to US stealth bomber flights over the Korean peninsula.

State news agency KCNA said leader Kim Jong-un signed off on the order at a late-night meeting of top generals.

The time had come to "settle accounts" with the US, KCNA quoted him as saying, with the B-2 flights an "ultimatum".

Pyongyang has been angered by fresh UN sanctions and annual US-South Korea military drills.

The US - which flew two stealth bombers over the peninsula on Thursday as part of the ongoing military drills - has said it is ready for "any eventuality" on the peninsula.

Kim Jong-un placed the rocket units on standby after an emergency meeting at 00:30 on Friday (15:30 GMT), KNCA said.

Tensions in the Korean peninsula are high following North Korea's third nuclear test on 12 February.

North Korea has also made multiple threats against both the US and South Korea in recent weeks, including warning of a "pre-emptive nuclear strike" on the US and the scrapping of the Korean War armistice.

North Korea is not thought to have the technology to strike the US mainland with either a nuclear weapon or a ballistic missile, but it is capable of targeting some US military bases in Asia with its mid-range missiles.

On Wednesday, Pyongyang cut a military hotline with the south - the last direct official link between the two nations.


View the original article here

North Korea says it has cut last military hotline with South - Washington Post

SEOUL — Raising tensions with South Korea yet again, North Korea on Wednesday cut its last military hotline with Seoul, a link that has been essential to running the last major symbol of inter-Korean cooperation: an industrial complex in the North that employs hundreds of workers from the South.

There was no immediate word about what cutting one of the few remaining official North-South links means for South Korean workers at the Kaesong industrial complex. When the link was last cut, in 2009, many South Koreans were temporarily stranded in the North.

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The hotline shutdown is the latest of many provocative actions and threats from North Korea, which is angry about U.S.-South Korean military drills and recent U.N. sanctions punishing it for its February nuclear test. In a statement announcing the shutdown, the North repeated its claim that war might break out at any moment.

Outside North Korea, Pyongyang’s actions are seen in part as an effort to spur dormant diplomatic talks with a view toward gaining aid, as well to strengthen internal loyalty to young leader Kim Jong Un and build his military credentials.

South Korean officials said that about 750 South Koreans were in Kaesong on Wednesday and that the two Koreas had normal communications over the hotline earlier in the day, when South Korean workers traveled back and forth to the complex as scheduled. The hotline is used by the countries’ militaries to arrange border crossings by the workers.

Workers at Kaesong could be contacted directly by phone from South Korea on Wednesday.

A South Korean employee of Pyxis, a company that produces jewelry cases at Kaesong, said in a phone interview that he wasn’t scared.

“It’s all right,” he said. “I’ve worked and lived with tension here for eight years now. I’m used to it.”

Pyongyang’s action was announced in a message that North Korea’s chief delegate to inter-Korean military talks sent to his South Korean counterpart.

Seoul’s Unification Ministry called the move an “unhelpful measure for the safe operation of the Kaesong complex.”

North Korea recently cut a Red Cross hotline with South Korea and another with the U.S.-led U.N. command at the border.

The Unification Ministry said three telephone hotlines remain between the North and the South, and those are used only for exchanging information about air traffic.

— Associated Press


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Thứ Năm, 21 tháng 3, 2013

S Korea hacked 'from China address'

Breaking news

A cyber attack on a South Korean bank came from an internet address in China, South Korean officials say.

The South's telecom regulator said hackers used a Chinese address to plant malicious code that shut down Nonghyup bank's network on Wednesday.

Another bank and three TV stations were also targeted on the same day.

Initial reports suggested the attack could have come from North Korea, which has been blamed for similar attacks in 2009 and 2011.


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Thứ Sáu, 15 tháng 3, 2013

US Boosts Defense From North Korea - Wall Street Journal

WASHINGTON—The Pentagon is preparing to strengthen its missile defense systems on the West Coast in response to increased threats from North Korea and rising tensions on the Korean peninsula.

image
image
Getty Images

U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel Friday said the U.S. plans to boost its missile defense system due to concerns about the possible nuclear capabilities of North Korea.

The U.S. plans to boost its ground-based missile interceptors in Alaska and California by one-third, adding 14 additional systems to the 30 already in place on the West Coast, a senior defense official said Friday. Interceptors are vehicles that are launched to intercept intercontinental missiles in flight.

The expansion in the system was due to be announced by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel at a news conference Friday.

The decision comes as North Korea has issued a series of threats to attack the U.S. and South Korea over new international sanctions and joint military exercises in the region.

Earlier this month, North Korea threatened to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the U.S. and South Korea. While American officials don't believe North Korea is capable of launching a long-range attack, the threat is seen as a concerning sign of the nation's state of mind.

Pentagon officials signaled the possible expansion days earlier. "North Korea's shrill public pronouncements underscore the need for the U.S. to continue to take prudent steps to defeat any future North Korean ICBM," James Miller, undersecretary of defense for policy, said in a speech last week at the Atlantic Council.

The administration decision comes four years after President Barack Obama put a hold on the deployment plan soon after he took office. Republican lawmakers said Friday they agreed with the enhancement, but said the administration was wrong to freeze the system in 2009.

"Four years ago, the Obama administration began to unilaterally disarm our defenses and deterrent in the hope our enemies would follow suit," said Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Ala.), chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.

"President Obama is finally realizing what President Reagan taught us 30 years ago: The best way to keep the peace is through strength," Mr. Rogers said.

Pentagon officials responded to the criticism, saying the danger from North Korean has evolved over the past four years.

"We use the resources to the best of our ability to prepare for threats that exist currently," said the senior defense official. "Look where North Korea was four years ago compared to where North Korea is today. It is a different threat."


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Thứ Hai, 11 tháng 3, 2013

US issues new sanctions after North Korea 'scraps' armistice - Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration reacted with new sanctions and blunt warnings Monday to a North Korean declaration that it had "completely scrapped" the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War.

Sharpening the tensions on the peninsula, the North Korean regime declared in the party newspaper Rodong Sinmun that the 60-year-old truce was over and "the time for final showdown has arrived." It severed a hotline that has been used to prevent an unintended confrontation between North and South Korea and angrily condemned a 13,000-troop U.S.-South Korean military exercise that began Monday.

But while expressing concern over the North's actions, Obama administration officials insisted they would not seek to ease tensions, as past administrations have done, by providing aid in exchange for promises to scale back the weapons program.

"The United States will not play the game of accepting empty promises or yielding to threats," Thomas Donilon, President Obama's national security advisor, said in a speech to the Asia Society in New York. "To get the assistance it desperately needs and the respect it claims it wants, North Korea will have to change course."

Donilon announced that the administration was issuing sanctions aimed at cutting off the Foreign Trade Bank of North Korea from the U.S. financial system, saying the bank provides financing for Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs. The punishments, which also blacklist three individual North Korean officials, come on top of financial sanctions imposed last week by the United Nations Security Council.

Donilon also warned Pyongyang, which is suspected of supporting an Iranian arms program, that the United States considers any sale of banned weapons technology a "grave threat" to the United States and "will hold North Korea fully accountable for the consequences."

North Korea has previously threatened to void the armistice, but U.S. officials and private analysts are increasingly concerned that the North's mounting threats are a signal that it could soon lash out at South Korea.

Pyongyang responded furiously last week to the U.N. sanctions, which were imposed by unanimous vote in response to North Korea's Feb. 12 nuclear test. It has warned that planes and vessels need to stay away from sections of the East Sea and Yellow Sea, hints that it may be considering more missile tests.

South Korea's new president, Park Geun-hye, said Monday during her first Cabinet meeting that the country needed to "deal strongly with the North Korean provocation." She also said her government was prepared to work to build trust between the North and South.

Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington predicted that Pyongyang would lash out with a military provocation within weeks, noting in an assessment that North Korea has authorized some military action within weeks of the inauguration of each new South Korean leader dating to 1992. Park was inaugurated Feb. 25.

But Christopher Hill, who was U.S. envoy for North Korean nuclear negotiations during the George W. Bush administration, said he thought the North's unprecedented tough rhetoric was aimed primarily at strengthening North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's position with his domestic audience, as well as defying the Chinese, who have been tougher than usual in their condemnation of the nuclear test.

"It bears some watching, but I don't think this is a sign of impending conflict," said Hill, now at the University of Denver.

Donilon's comments appeared to suggest that the administration was not about to overhaul its approach to North Korea — sometimes called "strategic patience" — despite pressure from the left to return to negotiations and from the right to escalate punishment.

"I don't think there is anywhere they can go," Hill said. "There aren't a lot of great choices."

paul.richter@latimes.com

Times staff writer Richter reported from Washington and special correspondent Choi from Seoul.


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Thứ Năm, 7 tháng 3, 2013

North Korea threat of nuclear attack predictable but worrisome - NBCNews.com

In a sign that North Korea's threats are wearing thin, their closest ally – China -- voted with the U.S. for tough economic sanctions on luxury goods. North Korea responded by announcing they "will be exercising our right to preemptive nuclear attack." NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

By Robert Windrem
Senior investigative producer, NBC News

Thursday’s announcement by North Korea that it could launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack against the United States in the face of new U.N. sanctions is a predictable escalation of the isolated nation’s increasingly aggressive stance toward Washington over the past year. But experts note that Pyongyang’s recent advances in its nuclear weapons and missile programs mean that such bellicose rhetoric cannot be taken lightly.

ANALYSIS

The escalation of the North’s oratory began not long after the country’s 28-year-old leader, Kim Jong Un,  took over from his late father, Kim Jong Il, on Dec. 28, 2011. It has been accompanied by two space launches – one successful – and a third nuclear weapons test.

 It is not unusual for the North to make threats against the U.S., Japan or South Korea. And on occasion -- as in the case of the 2010 artillery barrage of Yeonpyeong Island and an earlier attack on a South Korean gunboat -- it has carried out these threats.  It has never taken any military action after threatening the United States, however.


Some analysts have suggested that the latest round of threats is intended to show that the young Kim will continue his father’s legacy of hostility toward the U.S.

To what end?

North Korea has long wanted the U.S. to sit down with its negotiators to hammer out an agreement to end the Korean War, which ended in 1953 not in a peace treaty but in a truce.

The North would like to gain concessions from the U.S. in such a negotiation, but its escalating threats and rhetoric have the opposite effect:  The Obama administration, like preceding administrations, has steadfastly refused to negotiate with Pyongyang.

KCNA / Reuters

This picture, released Tuesday by North Korea's official KCNA news agency, is said to show a rally by citizens and soldiers to support a statement by the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army that it will scrap the armistice signed in 1953 that ended a three-year war with South Korea if the South and the United States continue with annual military drills.

The problem is that North Korea, which has long taken a backseat in U.S. councils to the Middle East, does have military capabilities that could at the very least threaten U.S. interests in North Asia.

According to a recent analysis, North Korea has a weapon stockpile that could threaten both Japan and South Korea and, in longer term, the United States. Some of the weapons have already been deployed, say U.S. officials, who spoke to NBC News on condition of anonymity. Moreover, the North has begun research into more advanced and dangerous weapons, possibly even thermonuclear weapons, they say. 

At the high end of the stockpile range, U.S. officials and other researchers said North Korea may already have up to "a few dozen" nuclear weapons that could be fitted atop its vast fleet of ballistic missiles. Those missiles are limited to an intermediate range, capable of hitting targets in Japan, South Korea or elsewhere in the northern Pacific, including U.S. military bases as far south as Guam, the officials believe.

Related story: UN passes sanctions despite North Korea threat of 'pre-emptive nuclear attack'

The U.S. believes the space launch tests are part of a development plan for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the continental United States with a payload of several hundred kilotons — 10 to 20 times the size of the bombs that destroyed the Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

U.S. officials publicly express confidence that the national missile defense system based in Alaska would be able to shoot down any incoming North Korean ICBM.

“I can tell you that the United States is fully capable of defending against any North Korean ballistic missile attack,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said Thursday in response to a question about the North Korean threat.

 He also said the U.N. sanctions will make it harder for Pyongyang to continue to make progress on its weapons and missiles. 

“North Korea … will now face new barriers to developing its banned nuclear and ballistic missile programs,” he said. “Resolution 2094 increases North Korea's isolation and demonstrates to North Korea's leaders the increasing costs they pay for defying the international community.” 

For the past several years, the U.S. also has been monitoring North Korean research into thermonuclear weapons — hydrogen bombs and bombs known as boosted-fission weapons, in which plutonium and uranium are combined for a higher energy yield. (The problem is that if the North conducted a test and claimed that it was thermonuclear, the U.S. would have difficulty determining if the North was telling the truth. The test site at Kilchu is far enough inland that the U.S. would not have access to the particulate matter needed to make an accurate determination, experts say. )

David Guttenfelder, AP's chief Asia photographer, was given unprecedented access on his 2011 journey to Pyongyang and areas outside the nation's showcase capital.

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, or ISIS, a nonpartisan nuclear arms research group, said last year that any tests in the future may also be about ensuring the reliability of North Korea's current weapons design.

"Once you get beyond a dozen, it makes sense to test type and reliability of your weapons," he said. Albright said then that his group's estimate of North Korea's weapons stockpile is a bit less than those provided by the U.S. officials, but that ISIS, too, believes Pyongyang has "missile-deliverable weapons."

The design of the weapons is believed to be based on Chinese models (as were the first generation Pakistani nuclear weapons). The design is basic, and was developed in the 1960s with help from the Soviet Union, which used it to produce a whole line of nuclear warheads.

While some analysts suggested that the North planned its December rocket launch to gain attention ahead of the presidential election in South Korea , some in the U.S. non-proliferation community think otherwise. They expect that once the North feels comfortable with its ICBM technology, it will deploy the missiles.  They point to the Musudan intermediate range missile which was tested in middle of the last decade, then deployed — presumably with nuclear warheads — and aimed at Japan.

Once the North has confidence in the long-range missile based on the space rocket, U.S. officials believe they will deploy it as well, making North Korea the third nation to have nuclear weapons targeted at the United States, after Russia and China.

Many in the Obama administration see that as a more frightening prospect than Iran gaining nuclear weapons, believing that Tehran is a rational actor that will serve its own national interest and preserve the regime, compared to successive generations of North Korean leaders who have shown that they are unpredictable and erratic.

But would it force the U.S. to conduct face-to-face talks with the North? State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in December that the North has a better option.

Referring to Kim Jong Un, Nuland said: "He can plot a way forward that ends the isolation, that brings relief and a different way of life and progress to his people, or he can further isolate them with steps like this. He can spend his time and his money shooting off missiles, or he can feed his people, but he can't have both."

NBC News' Shawna Thomas contributed to this report; this piece is an updated version of a post originally published on Dec. 13, 2012.

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